UTAS is in
more trouble than Burke and Wills.
The UTAS Council
meeting on 27th April 2023 discussed the 2023 financial forecast.
The minutes, reproduced below, make bleak reading.
The Council “discussed
the challenging conditions facing the University in 2023” and proceeded to
discuss ways “to generate a positive EBITDA in the coming years.” What
that implies is that current projections must show negative EBITDAs.
The acronym
EBITDA stands for Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortisation, essentially
the cash earnings before interest and depreciation (NB UTAS doesn’t pay tax). It’s
a standard measure of the cash available to service borrowings and to pay for capex
amounts (new buildings say).
UTAS’ EBITDA
in 2022 was $30.9 million. To be in negative territory in 2023 reveals an
alarming downturn.
A business
might break even from a profit perspective, but adding back depreciation and
interest gives a figure for cash earnings.
If UTAS has
negative cash earnings, it can only survive by running down its investments or
borrowing more. Even if capex spending is zero, it means UTAS is borrowing to
pay interest. Ouch.
Running down
investment and borrowing more was the plan for financing the Hobart move.
Without that UTAS survival changes would be greater as universities traditionally
have a larger buffer of cash and investments than most in the private sector.
The minutes suggest
future challenges will start to be addressed in October. This highlights the
nature of UTAS’ business. Whilst others might be able to implement changes
more rapidly, UTAS is tied to the cycle of the academic year. It’s going to
have to live with cash haemorrhaging for the rest of 2023 and hope things can
be put into place post October to take effect before the 2024 academic year.
The 2022
Annual Report reflected “(t)hese past three years have been among the most
challenging our University has ever faced.”
It’s going
to get worse. Far worse.