Prime Minister Menzies was never pilloried for running seventeen successive deficits and risking burdening my generation with onerous amounts of debt.
Times
changed and deficits became taboo.
The
latest budget shows deficits are here to stay. Even the uncertain projections
of later years reveal deficits.
The
talk is now of having a creditable path to a surplus.
Arguably
the more pressing need is to find a credible path to credibility.
Never
has there been such a radical shift from one budget to the next, from fixing a debt
and deficit disaster to living with a wing and a prayer twelve months later.
The
Budget is predominantly a political reaction not an economic plan.
The
centrepiece appeal was to the hearts minds and pockets of small business owners
with annual turnovers less than $2 million who can now get an immediate tax
deduction, for the next two years, for the purchase of any business asset for
less than $20,000.
It
hasn’t been obvious that the lack of investment in small assets by small
business owners has been a stumbling block. The world is awash with unused
capacity. Lack of demand is the problem.
The
slowing down of investment following the end of the capital investment stage of
the mining boom is more likely due to the lack of aggregate demand in the
economy, not because tradies and other small businesses have worn out gear that
needs replacing. There will be a lot of sales done at $19,999. And no doubt
computer sellers like Apple who currently, ironically, book much of their
income off shore will also benefit. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest, the
MIS disaster for instance, that up front tax deductions don’t necessarily lead
to optimal resource allocation. Whilst obviously welcome by small businesses
the economic case for the measure is not overwhelming.
Tasmania
received good news in March that general purpose grants via its GST share for
2015/16 will be $140 million more than expected a year ago. Future relativities
between States are dependent on numerous factors particularly iron ore royalties
received by WA. The budget contains estimated future GST relativities and
entitlements incorporating forecast iron ore royalties. The news is still good
for Tasmania. Over the next three years GST receipts could be as high as $533
million more than expected a year ago.
However
extreme care needs to be taken with the estimated relativities. These can
change rapidly. So too can the size of the GST pool.
Not
so lucky were the specific purpose grants including national partnership payments
which Treasurer Hockey last year slashed by $80 billion over a ten year period,
mainly in later years. No further word in this year’s budget. When asked at
Tuesday’s budget lock up the Treasurer reportedly said: “Some of the States are
running surpluses; we are not running a surplus. Don’t shed a tear for the
States.”
States
are much more constrained with revenue raising and have little ability to run
deficits. Their borrowings are at an uncomfortably high level if one includes
government owned businesses. Not so the Federal government. Different levels of
government have different capacities.
The
Federal government’s balance sheet reveals negative assets -- net liabilities
in excess of assets -- due to accumulated cash deficits. It will always be that
way and is not of concern.
Next
year’s cash deficit is projected to be $35 billion of which $8 billion is for
the NBN and $18 billion to States for capital spending on roads and rail. Much
of the accumulated Federal deficit has resulted from capex grants to States. Borrowing
a little more each year to fund infrastructure is hardly reckless behaviour.
The key is getting the States to spend sensibly and get them to claw back a
little each year via low broad based land taxes from those who benefit from
increased property values.
PM
Abbott, our self anointed infrastructure king, did little to retain his regal
title. Apart from some spending in Northern Australia nothing new of substance was
earmarked for the other 98% of the population.
By
June 2015 gross government debt will be $430 billion but net debt $250 billion
after assets such as Future Fund investments are deducted. By 2018/19 gross
debt will increase by $154 billion but net debt by only $75 billion to $325
billion.
The
government will be spending, as a % of GDP, as much as Kevin Rudd did when he
propped up aggregate demand after the GFC hoping to forestall a recession.
It
will therefore be difficult for the government to continue to taunt the
opposition about it being addicted to spending and borrowing so perhaps a truce
will be called and economic policy discussion can hopefully move to a more
sensible level.
Interest
on net debt will be $13 billion for 2015/16 and $14 billion three years later.
This is only 3% of budget outlays and less than 1% of GDP. It’s the least of
our problems.
The
government has been forced to move a little quicker, or at least appear to do
so, against tax avoidance by multinationals. Not only Google and Apple but Rio
and BHP who, whilst campaigning against the mining tax were diverting income via
a hub in Singapore to Mauritius.
A
more equitable plan requires giving a haircut to the superannuation concessions
enjoyed by those fortunate to have been born or grew up through the Menzies
years.
Also
needed is a revision of housing tax arrangements -- negative gearing and
concessional capital gains tax --- which increase private borrowings and don’t
add to GDP as existing houses are simply swapped at ever increasing prices using
more debt. The effect has also been to force homeowners with young children
back into the workforce earlier than is optimal for children so that mortgages
can be paid which in turn has necessitated government subsided child care.
Private
debt is almost ten times the size of Federal government debt yet the government’s
strategy as enunciated by the Treasurer just after the RBA dropped interest rates
to record lows and repeated relentlessly since is to urge the private sector to
borrow more.
Budgets
should primarily be about ensuring the nations’ available resources are fully
utilised.
On
that score the budget is a conspicuous failure.
It
may be fairer than last year but it has little economic merit.
(Published in The Mercury 14th May 2015)
Thanks for a run-down on the budget John. One of the scary things about applying Australian GST to international internet sales is that foreign countries will expect Australian businesses to start collecing tax for them as well.
ReplyDeleteSmaller online traders are already collecting GST for Australia as well completing the rest of our business compliance duties that I persoanlly find onerous.