Another forest industry plan

The Forest and Forestry Industry Council FFIC have recently released a 106 page report detailing their Plan for the future: The New Forest Industry Plan: HERE

Most credible plans will attempt an analysis of the past before attempting to outline a future course of action. The description of the past is skimpy and the analysis non-existent. It’s a little hard to give credence to the new Plan built on these foundations.

There is, however, one conclusion that is very revealing.

“Sawing trials have concluded that E.nitens plantation stock is unsuitable for, and uneconomical as, a source of wood for appearance grade sawn products. This is because of the considerable degrade associated with the seasoning process (in particular, surface checking and unrecovered collapse). .............. Unless these challenges (associated with processing plantation timber) are overcome, a large proportion of the current Tasmanian hardwood production industry is unlikely to be able to profitably or sustainably process plantation sourced logs into high grade products.”

Basically, FFIC has led the industry up the wrong path. Or maybe I should say the path that FFIC has been following is now known to be the wrong one.

Hodgman's Reagonomics

 ABC News (HERE) reported Will Hodgman as saying the Greens’ policy would bankrupt the state.

The Tasmanian Opposition has ridiculed the Greens for promising to abolish poker machines.

Tasmanians lose about $220 million a year on poker machines, while the Government reaps about $55 million in revenue, or 7 per cent of State tax receipts.

The Greens say they want to phase out pokies within five years, leading to fewer problem gamblers and big savings.

However Liberal leader Will Hodgman is sceptical.

“Most Greens policies are right out there in the Never-Never, they bear no practical resemblance to what’s achievable…......... it’s very easy for Mr McKim to come out and make these wild statements [but] how is he going to bring these policies into effect, without bankrupting the state.”

It is not immediately clear why abolishing land tax of about $80m or 10% of the State’s tax receipts over 8 years won’t create an even larger problem.

Our economic black hole

Most discussions about economic issues, and the state of the State is no exception, usually resort to what Paul Krugman in the preface to his breezy offering The Age of Diminished Expectations described as ‘up-and-down economics.’

Professor Krugman said:

“Up-and-down economics is what one encounters on the business pages of newspapers, or for that matter on TV. It is preoccupied with the latest news and the latest numbers, hence its name:”According to the latest statistics, housing starts are up, indicating unexpected strength in the economy. Bond prices fell on the news…” This kind of economics has a reputation for being stultifyingly boring, a reputation that is almost entirely justified.”

But it’s all we get in Tassie. See for example award winning journo Sue Neales tackle an analysis of the latest Mid Year Financial Report released just prior to Xmas HERE:).

It’s little wonder that the level of debate that we are now experiencing and will have to increasingly endure over the next 2 months not only causes boredom but it fails to explain our predicament leading up to an important election for this State.

Financial illiteracy

 “Treasurer, is the Budget blowing out again”, asks Peter Gutwein, Shadow Treasurer in a Press Release dated 15^th September 2009. “Last year, in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis, the State Government managed to spend $311 million more than it budgeted”.

Quite correct. Mr Gutwein must be reading from page 10 of the Preliminary Outcomes Report released 14^th August 2009.

But then Mr Gutwein says “(t)his was despite Tasmania losing nearly $220 million in revenue in 2008-09.”

That is incorrect. Revenue was $103 million higher in 2008/09 than budgeted not $220 million less.

Mr Gutwein then intones“(w)e need financial leadership and vision, not spin and poor management”.

Agreed, but we also need people who can read a simple set of accounts.

Accounting for dummies.. a look at Forestry Tasmania

Media releases which accompany reports such as FT’s 2008/09 annual financial statements usually attempt to mislead rather than inform. The reliance on PR people who are obviously quite limited when it comes to interpreting economic and financial statements isn’t exactly designed to logically and coherently explain FT’s current situation to stakeholders.

Where did all the money go?

Where did the money go? The perennial question every time a company heads into bankruptcy.

It is of particular interest in cases of failed MIS companies for anyone trying to assess the effectiveness of the MIS model and the efficacy of Government policy in the important area of land use.

The recently fallen Great Southern Limited (GSL) represented 30% to 35% of the MIS industry in turnover terms. Whilst it has operated since 1987 it didn’t list on the ASX until 1999. There’s reasonably good data available from 1st July 1998 until 30th September 2008 which may shed some light on how the MIS industry has operated.

More info please

I agree with Matt ( Why there was no doorstop ). Avoiding doorstop interviews are minor misdemeanours.

Provided the Premier maintains continuous disclosure.

The Premier’s recent speech to the Party faithful echoes much of the State of the State speech in March 2009.Consider the much vaunted irrigation proposals (in March), which “revolves around the creation of a Statewide water economy to make Tasmania a foodbowl for Australia. “