The
absence of any reliable polling during the current election campaign has left most
observers scratching their heads as to what is exactly happening in the minds
of voters.
What
are the betting markets saying?
Sportsbet
is currently taking bets on seventeen ‘races’. How many seats each of the three
major parties will win in each of the five seats accounts for fifteen ‘races’.
Then there’s the two big ‘races’… who will be next Premier, and will it be a
hung Parliament or not?
Take
the market covering a hung parliament. It’s a two-horse race. Hung or not
hung. The odds of hung are $1.65 and not hung $2.10. Unless one is a horse
player, most people have trouble interpreting exactly what the odds mean. A
bookie always includes his percentage in any quoted odds so that has to be
eliminated in order to work out the chances of a particular event occurring as perceived
by the markets. In this case, after the necessary adjustments, it means hung
has a 56% chance of occurring whilst not hung has a 44% chance.
In
the case of not hung either the Libs or Labor will have a majority.
Now
in order to win a majority a party needs 13 seats which almost certainly means
three seats in at least three electorates. The battle for the fifth seat in
each electorate is crucial as everyone knows.
It’s
often said if a party wants to achieve a majority then three seats in Lyons is
almost mandatory.
What
are the Sportbet markets saying? The following are the odds for each party winning
zero, one, two, three seats etc in the seat of Lyons.
It’s
the fifth seat that’s crucial. Highlighted is the Libs and Labor odds of picking
up 3 seats and the Greens odds of snaring one. The Greens have a much better
chance of picking up a seat than the Labor and Labs have of winning three seats.
Surprisingly Labor has a better chance of three seats than the Libs.
When
the bookies percentage is eliminated, and the odds converted to chances in %
terms, if one assumes the two major parties get two seats each, parties’ chances of fifth seat in Lyons as per the Sportsbet markets
are:
Greens
|
47%
|
Labor
|
28%
|
Libs
|
25%
|
The
Greens are needless to say, favoured to win the fifth seat in both Denison:
Greens
|
63%
|
Labor
|
28%
|
Libs
|
9%
|
…..and
Franklin:
Greens
|
62%
|
Libs
|
28%
|
Labor
|
10%
|
In
Bass the Greens are, perhaps surprisingly, favoured to win the fifth seat ahead
of the others. The % chances are:
Greens
|
46%
|
Libs
|
40%
|
Labor
|
13%
|
It’s
not until one reaches Braddon that the Libs are favoured to win the fifth seat:
Libs
|
52%
|
Greens
|
26%
|
Labor
|
23%
|
In
other words, in its best seat, the Libs only have a 52 % chance of picking up
the fifth seat.
The
Libs chances in the other seats are, in diminishing order, Bass (40%), Franklin
(28%) Lyons (25%) and Denison (9%).
Labor’s
chances of a fifth seat are best in Lyons and Denison (both 28%), followed by Braddon
(23%), Bass (13%) and Franklin (10%).
Of
course, the two major parties may fail to win two seats in a particular electorate.
The most likely occurrence of this is the Libs only winning one seat in
Denison. The chances of this are 26%. The Libs only getting one seat in Lyons is a 10% chance. In the other seats the chances are single figure %s.
Labor’s chances of ending up with only one seat in any electorate are all below 20%, with Franklin being the highest at 19% followed by Bass (15%). The other three are single figure %s.
Labor’s chances of ending up with only one seat in any electorate are all below 20%, with Franklin being the highest at 19% followed by Bass (15%). The other three are single figure %s.
Sportsbet
markets don’t include Jacqui Lambie Network. If it was included the relative
chances of the three other parties are unlikely to change much.
Getting
back to the hung vs not hung situation, incorporating the seat by seat chances above,
Sportsbet punters assess the chances of the overall election outcome as
follows:
Hung parliament
|
56%
|
Lib majority
|
26%
|
Labor majority
|
18%
|
The Sportsbet odds don't look much different to the odds implied by the November 2017 EMRS poll. If the Libs have picked up ground since then it's not reflected in the Sportsbet odds.
Interesting times ahead.
Interesting times ahead.
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